How Many Trades Until You Know? Sample Size & Luck
Ten green trades feel like proof you've cracked it. They aren't. Here's how to tell skill from luck — and how big a sample you actually need.
You try a new setup. The first ten trades are mostly winners. The instinct is overwhelming: this works, size up. The uncomfortable truth is that ten trades tell you almost nothing — a coin that lands heads seven times out of ten is not a magic coin, it's a normal coin on a normal afternoon. Knowing how many trades it takes before a result means something is one of the least glamorous and most valuable skills a trader can build, because it's the difference between trusting an edge and trusting a hot streak.
A handful of trades is mostly noise
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